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All-In Podcast · Oct 17, 2026 · 94 min

CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer

The panel argued that the AI infrastructure trade remains supported by exceptional compute demand and constrained supply, but debt costs, fixed-price contracts, and execution risks make neoclouds such as CoreWeave vulnerable. They were broadly positive on AI adoption and the prospects for OpenAI and Anthropic, while warning that IPO financing needs and slowing growth deserve scrutiny. They also debated software’s deflationary impact, argued that power could become a key bottleneck and moat, and criticized Anthropic’s safety warnings and calls for restrictions on open models as fear-driven and potentially counterproductive.

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Where they stand

Markets

Neutral

The panel was broadly constructive on AI-linked risk assets but saw significant financing and valuation risks, especially if long-term rates rise or compute-project paybacks lengthen.

Medium conviction · months

AI

Very bullish

The speakers expect AI adoption, compute demand, and productivity gains to continue growing, while emphasizing infrastructure constraints and financing as major risks.

High conviction · years

Key takeaways

  1. CoreWeave’s financing structure and rising borrowing costs create a potentially dangerous feedback loop, though speakers disagreed about how much that threatens the company. 6:09
  2. The panel said AI compute demand remains strong and supply is constrained, making the current market dynamics different from the internet bubble; they highlighted GPU payback periods as a key risk gauge. 15:07
  3. The speakers viewed OpenAI and Anthropic as compelling, strategically important AI companies, but debated how much cash Anthropic should raise ahead of an IPO. 26:46
  4. They argued that AI will make software cheaper while expanding the amount of software created, and that specialized models, proprietary data, and power could be important sources of advantage. 32:19
  5. Several speakers criticized Anthropic’s warnings about AI risks and open-source models, arguing that its proposed threats are overstated and that restrictions could suppress competition. 1:03:56
  6. The panel warned that high interest rates and government deficits could undermine financing-dependent AI businesses, even if demand and underlying assets remain strong. 29:00

Calls and positions

  • The panel said a rising 10-year Treasury yield near 5.5%–6% would damage businesses that depend on financing spreads, including AI infrastructure companies.
    “Any business model that thrives on a financing spread gets cornhold”
    Very bearishPrediction: 10-year Treasury yield at 5.5%–6%Chamath Palihapitiya, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 29:00
  • Ben Horowitz said Anthropic’s IPO is likely to be strong despite uncertainty about its growth rate and valuation.
    “I think it is set up to have a a strong IPO.”
    Very bullishPrediction: a strong IPOBen Horowitz, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 52:16#Anthropic
  • Chamath Palihapitiya said investors should get long energy because AI startups may not be able to rely on hyperscalers for sufficient electricity and capacity.
    “you got to get long energy”
    Very bullishTradeChamath Palihapitiya, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 44:58

Views expressed

  • The credit-default-swap market implied roughly a 55% chance that CoreWeave would default over five years.
    “about a 55% chance of a default”
    Very bearishChamath Palihapitiya, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 6:09
  • CoreWeave could approach its break-even point if future borrowing costs rise into the 10%–15% range.
    “these guys are getting very, very, very close to not necessarily being able to cover all the obligations”
    BearishChamath Palihapitiya, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 11:11
  • The panel argued that AI compute demand is still growing rapidly and that older GPUs continue renting at premium prices.
    “the demand for compute just keeps growing by leaps and bounds”
    Very bullishDavid Sacks, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 20:42
  • David Sacks said AI compute supply is constrained rather than excessive because building powered data centers is difficult and faces regulatory obstacles.
    “if anything we believe that there's not a glut it's the other way that there's enforced scarcity”
    Very bullishDavid Sacks, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 22:21
  • Chamath Palihapitiya argued that Anthropic should prioritize raising roughly $200 billion to $250 billion over maximizing its IPO valuation.
    “They need in my estimate at least 200 billion.”
    BullishChamath Palihapitiya, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 55:03#Anthropic
  • David Sacks argued that AI will increase the total amount of software created, even as prices for software fall.
    “there's going to be a lot more software created in the world”
    Very bullishDavid Sacks, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 33:27
  • Ben Horowitz said software prices will fall but the volume of software will rise, allowing companies to adapt by building better products and services.
    “prices software prices will definitely go down. Um but the amount of software is going way way up.”
    BullishBen Horowitz, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 35:40
  • Chamath Palihapitiya argued that access to power and data-center capacity will become a critical competitive advantage for AI businesses.
    “I think power will be the moat.”
    Very bullishChamath Palihapitiya, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 37:55
  • Ben Horowitz argued that Anthropic’s campaign against open-source models is unnecessary and could stifle competition.
    “their attempts to kneecap opensource through their incessant fear-mongering campaigns and regulatory capture”
    BearishBen Horowitz, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 52:50#Anthropic
  • Ben Horowitz argued that the runaway AI self-improvement scenario remains theoretical because none of the four conditions he listed have been met.
    “Zero of those four have been met.”
    BullishBen Horowitz, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 1:27:58
  • David Sacks argued that Anthropic’s approach to model constitutions could encourage models to see themselves as independent moral actors and increase alignment risks.
    “they are creating the very risk they keep warning us about”
    Very bearishDavid Sacks, Oct 17, 2026Watch at 1:20:39#Anthropic

Topics covered

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