Jordi Visser · Oct 18, 2026 · 77 min
The AI Bubble Didn’t Pop. Hedge Fund Leverage Did.
Jordi Visser argues that the market turmoil is a hedge-fund deleveraging event, not an AI bubble bursting: the S&P 500 is near its highs, while crowded, leveraged strategies are suffering sharp losses. He remains bullish on AI infrastructure and adoption, citing expanding use cases, rising demand and long-dated supply constraints, though he expects volatility and further forced selling before a possible year-end rebound. He is also strongly positive on crypto and tokenization over the longer term, but says Bitcoin may not rise until hedge-fund stress stabilizes and could drift toward 75.
Where they stand
The current selloff is primarily a leveraged hedge-fund positioning unwind rather than a broad equity bubble, though forced selling may persist before a possible rebound.
High conviction · months
AI adoption and compute demand are still accelerating, and current market stress does not amount to an AI bubble bursting.
High conviction · years
Crypto and tokenization have a strong long-term role in the changing market structure, although Bitcoin may remain weak until hedge-fund stress subsides.
High conviction · years
Key takeaways
- The episode’s central claim is that hedge-fund leverage and crowded positioning are unwinding; this is not yet an equity-market or AI bubble collapse. 2:43
- Visser expects forced selling to continue into hyperscaler earnings and possibly the midterms, with a potential year-end rebound if the AI fundamentals remain intact. 19:57
- He rejects the view that AI demand is failing, pointing to agents, robotics, and other emerging uses as sources of future revenue and compute demand. 32:12
- He argues that long-term AI infrastructure demand remains robust, with suppliers reporting bookings and capacity constraints extending several years out. 50:47
- Visser says crypto has held up better than AI-related equities, favors crypto over AI in his own portfolio, and sees tokenization as a force reshaping markets. 26:37
- He remains constructive on Bitcoin but does not expect it to rise until hedge-fund conditions stabilize; a further drift toward 75 would not surprise him. 1:15:08
- He sees AI-driven adoption of agent workflows as a potential source of labor-market disruption and weaker employment, with implications for margins and policy. 1:12:55
Calls and positions
- Visser expects crowded hedge-fund positions to keep falling into hyperscaler earnings and possibly the midterm elections, followed by a year-end snapback if there is no AI bubble.
“the pain trade for this is to continue into the hyperscaler earnings and maybe all the way into the midterms”
- Visser says AI agents and Vera Rubin are the places to invest within agentic compute over the next 12 months.
“AI agents and Vera Rubin are the place you want to be investing in”
- Visser says Nvidia's guidance indicated 70% revenue growth for the next year, which he regards as evidence that AI business demand remains strong.
“Nvidia just guided for 70% revenue growth.”
- Visser says he has shifted most of his portfolio into crypto and expects his AI allocation to remain smaller.
“The majority of my portfolio moved into crypto.”
- Visser says Bitcoin is holding up during the selloff but is unlikely to rise until hedge-fund conditions stabilize.
“I don't think we're going to see a move higher in Bitcoin until we see some stabilization in the hedge fund scenario.”
- Visser says Bitcoin could meander back toward 75 before conditions improve.
“it would not surprise me if it kept meandering back down towards the 75 area”
Views expressed
- Visser says hedge-fund leverage is undergoing a lasting dismantling and will not resume its prior rise.
“Hedge fund leverage has popped.”
- Visser says the S&P 500 was only 2.7% below its all-time high at the prior Friday close, so the equity market itself had not undergone a bubble collapse.
“We are 2.7% off the all-time highs in the S&P 500”
- Visser says the AI selloff reflects leverage and crowded trades rather than a collapse in underlying AI demand.
“This is deleveraging, guys”
- Visser argues that AI agent swarms will drive a step-up in demand for GPUs and compute.
“We are at a step-up function in demand right now”
- Visser says AI-driven agent workflows could weaken employment and affect profit margins and policy, though he does not frame this as a recession forecast.
“It's not a recession type thing. It's a profit margin type thing”
- Visser says tokenization will change how hedge-fund covariance and margin work and forms part of the deleveraging shift.
“Tokenization is the final part of the deleveraging stage for hedge funds.”
Topics covered
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