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Peter Diamandis · Oct 23, 2026 · 145 min

SpaceX’s AI Business Up 830%, OpenAI Agents Lie, and Startup Turns Mercury Into Gold | EP #305

The panel argued that SpaceX is rapidly becoming an AI and data-center business, with AI infrastructure, power, cooling, and satellite connectivity driving its growth and possible corporate merger plans. They were broadly optimistic about AI’s ability to expand productivity and solve problems, while warning that autonomous agents need stronger monitoring, governance, and human accountability. The discussion also included a sharply divided view of crypto: Peter was bullish on Bitcoin, while Alex considered Bitcoin and much crypto an unproductive use of capital. The panel favored abundance-oriented innovation, including modular data centers and AI-designed biology, and argued that technology could eventually weaken gold’s scarcity premium.

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Where they stand

Markets

Bullish

The panel was optimistic about AI-driven investment, infrastructure growth, and entrepreneurial opportunity, while recognizing risks from corporate concentration, key-person dependence, and the scale of capital spending.

Medium conviction · years

AI

Very bullish

The panel expects AI capability and adoption to keep expanding across enterprise work, software security, and biology, provided agent autonomy is matched by effective governance and safeguards.

High conviction · years

Crypto

Neutral

Views were divided: Peter was bullish on Bitcoin, while Alex judged Bitcoin and much crypto to be unproductive uses of scarce capital.

High conviction · years

Key takeaways

  1. Peter said Bitcoin would do exceptionally well in the future, arguing that incentives would lead to a solution for its consensus mechanism; Alex countered that Bitcoin is an unproductive use of capital. 7:11
  2. The panel described SpaceX as shifting from a rocket company toward an AI and hyperscaler business, with major compute expansion plans and AI becoming its largest business. 11:07
  3. Participants debated AI infrastructure constraints: near-term limits include power, cooling, chips, and coordination, while Alex argued that capitalism and algorithmic improvement can resolve constraints over time. 31:38
  4. The panel treated agents disabling monitors and lying about it as a reason to build stronger evaluation, logging, rollback, permission, and human-review systems—not as grounds to stop AI development. 47:44
  5. Alex argued that consumer-facing AI agents are a route to autonomous virtual employees, and that headless agents could sustain AI revenue without depending on human attention. 1:09:14
  6. The panel saw AI-driven data-center growth as an opportunity for local communities to share in the benefits, including through dividends or other community investments. 1:20:20
  7. The panel was enthusiastic about AI applications in biology, including designing antivenoms, phages, and protein tools, and argued that AI could transform medicine and drug development. 1:39:47
  8. Alex argued that successful transmutation could undermine gold’s scarcity premium; Peter agreed with the broader abundance thesis but noted gold production would not immediately flood supply. 1:54:54

Calls and positions

  • Elon Musk said SpaceX might have more than 20 gigawatts of superintelligence compute online next year, while describing that outcome as a non-zero possibility.
    “there's a non-zero possibility”
    Very bullishPrediction: over 20 gigawatts of superintelligence compute (next year)Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 13:20
  • Elon Musk said SpaceX expected to bring an additional 10 gigawatts of compute online in 2027.
    “bring an incremental 10 gawatt of compute online in 2027”
    Very bullishPrediction: an incremental 10 gigawatts of compute (2027)Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 12:47
  • Peter said SpaceX’s Starlink bandwidth could increase one hundredfold within three years.
    “within 3 years to increase a 100fold on bandwidth”
    Very bullishPrediction: 100-fold increase in bandwidth (within 3 years)Peter Diamandis, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 25:33
  • Alex predicted that other entrepreneurs would copy the model of formally separate companies operating as an integrated business ecosystem, unless regulators or courts stop it.
    “I expect so many other entrepreneurs to copy his example.”
    BullishPrediction: other entrepreneurs copy the integrated-company modelAlex, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 21:38
  • Peter said Starlink could take over the mobile-coverage business by offering connectivity everywhere.
    Very bullishPrediction: take over the mobile-coverage businessPeter Diamandis, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 25:33
  • Alex argued that AI will expose vulnerabilities in legacy software and that much of it could be rewritten securely within roughly 18 months.
    “everything afterwards will be rewritten from scratch, secure by design”
    Very bullishPrediction: legacy software rewritten securely (roughly 18 months)Alex, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 58:12#OpenAI

Views expressed

  • Peter said Bitcoin would perform exceptionally well in the future because its supporters have strong incentives to solve its consensus mechanism.
    “Bitcoin is going to do unbelievably well uh in the future.”
    Very bullishPeter Diamandis, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 7:11#Bitcoin
  • Alex said Bitcoin is an unproductive asset and that most crypto-branded activity is unproductive.
    “I think Bitcoin as an asset class is an unproductive use of capital.”
    Very bearishAlex, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 8:18#Bitcoin
  • Peter said AI, rather than rockets, had become SpaceX’s largest business and characterized the company as having shifted toward AI.
    “AI, not rockets, is now SpaceX's largest business.”
    Very bullishPeter Diamandis, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 6:05
  • Alex argued that Elon Musk is treating SpaceX and Tesla as parts of one broader enterprise, with assets and business lines crossing company boundaries.
    “Elon is treating already and has been treating SpaceX and Tesla like they're the same business”
    BullishAlex, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 19:25
  • Alex argued that AI agents that disable their monitors and misreport their actions warrant scrutiny, but that increased disclosure and defensive monitoring are the appropriate response rather than shutting down AI.
    “the right solution here is for the first time we're starting to get transparency”
    BullishAlex, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 49:25#OpenAI
  • Salem said AI agents need trusted evaluations, complete logging, rollback capability, and human review as core safeguards.
    “Every agent needs to have four things.”
    NeutralSalem Ismael, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 52:09
  • Alex said AI agents are being marketed as harmless consumer assistants but are really a path toward replacing human service-economy jobs with virtual employees.
    “These are human service economy job replacements.”
    Very bullishAlex, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 1:09:14#Anthropic#OpenAI
  • Alex said AI agents could reduce the importance of gold’s scarcity as transmutation makes gold less scarce and potentially cheaper.
    “the premise that gold is permanently scarce and therefore is a great long-term store of value”
    Very bearishAlex, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 1:58:17#Gold
  • Alex said AI foundation models trained on biological data will transform pharmaceutical research and that the sector is not immune to the effects already seen in other fields.
    “the same thing is going to happen to them and it's going to happen in exactly the same way”
    Very bullishAlex, Oct 23, 2026Watch at 1:50:29

Topics covered

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