Raoul Pal · Oct 15, 2026 · 38 min
The Secret to Long-Term Investing with Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal explains his long-term investing framework: hold assets in secular uptrends (mainly crypto and technology), use log regression channels and DeMark signals to find oversold entries, size positions by volatility, and avoid trading the wiggles. He sees the business and liquidity cycles in expansion, ETH and crypto as cheap versus trend and versus Nasdaq, and argues bonds may offer a reversal opportunity given record short positioning.
Where they stand
The business and liquidity cycles are in expansion, so risk assets in secular uptrends like tech should keep compounding, with the dollar's interim trend weak but its long-term trend strong.
High conviction · years
Crypto is in a secular uptrend driven by adoption, is oversold and cheap versus trend and versus Nasdaq, and is likely to accelerate out of its long consolidation.
High conviction · years
Technology is treated as one of the two most powerful secular trends to hold, though AI is not discussed in depth.
Medium conviction · years
Key takeaways
- Pal's core approach is to hold secular-trend assets (Bitcoin, Nasdaq/tech, crypto) and manage risk within the cycle rather than trading short-term setups. 2:56
- Log regression channels show how overbought or oversold an asset is. He buys around 1 to 1.5+ standard deviations oversold and sells near 2 standard deviations overbought. 4:03
- His risk monitor shows ISM rising and liquidity rising, which he reads as a full-cycle expansion, so the book should be positioned long. 5:09
- Using a 76% and a 49% trend rate on ETH, he sketches illustrative upside to about 18,000 ETH by Q2 2027 against about 1,200 points of risk from 2,700, roughly 6:1 reward-to-risk. 21:03
- He has rotated some technology exposure into crypto because crypto got two standard deviations oversold versus Nasdaq. 28:24
- The bond market is record short after rising yields, so he sees reversal risk and a possible opportunity, though he won't trade it because it doesn't fit his thesis. 31:44
- Trying to time the crypto cycle by selling the top and rebuying the bottom is, in his experience, net depletive. He prefers holding and not using leverage. 35:03
- Position sizing should reflect volatility: Solana is about 59% vol and Tesla about 45%, versus about 16% for the Nasdaq 100. 6:20
Calls and positions
- Using an illustrative trend extrapolation, ETH could reach about 18,000 if the trend slows and tops out in Q2 2027, though he says it is not a prediction.
“let's say we top out somewhere in Q2 2027 reasonable we get to about 18,000 ETH”
- ETH offers about a 6:1 reward-to-risk, with roughly 50% downside to the 1,500 trend line against about 300% upside from 2,700.
“So you got like 50% downside, 300% upside. So that's a 61 riskreward.”
- Crypto is very cheap versus Nasdaq, having hit two standard deviations oversold on the ratio, so he has reallocated some tech into crypto.
“So crypto is very cheap versus NASDAQ. Both are in secular uptrends.”
- Sui has a skewed reward-to-risk, with about 40 cents of downside against about 1.50 of upside to the top of its wedge range and potentially far more on a breakout.
“So you got 40 cents downside and 150 upside.”
Views expressed
- Technology and crypto will outperform the debasement of currency because they are in secular uptrends driven by adoption.
“technology and crypto outperform the debasement of currency and that we're in secular uptrends due to adoption”
- The business cycle and liquidity indicators signal a full cycle expansion, so the portfolio should be positioned long.
“we're in a full cycle expansion. I'm not here to trade the wiggles, don't forget.”
- The bond market is record short after the rise in yields, so the risk is a reversal and there may be an opportunity in bonds.
“So unless you've got an unknown element coming in, your risk is actually a reversal. So maybe there's an opportunity in bonds.”
- The dollar's long-term trend is stronger, but DeMark signals suggest it should be relatively weak for a period in the interim.
“Tells us the dollar should be relatively weak for a period of time.”
- Trying to time crypto by selling at the top and rebuying at the bottom is net depletive, and it is nearly impossible to rebuy a full-size position at the bottom.
“It is literally impossible to buy the B bottom in full size that you took off somewhere near the high”
- Tesla is in a large consolidation pattern, just over one standard deviation oversold, with a weekly trend currently negative and DeMark signals suggesting selling exhaustion.
“we are sort of just over one standard deviation oversold.”
- Asset returns track ISM year-on-year changes, so an expanding business cycle supports rising markets broadly.
Topics covered
- Bitcoin
- Ethereum
- Nasdaq
- Tesla
- Solana
- US dollar
- Treasuries and bonds
- Interest rates
- S&P 500
- Recession
More from Raoul Pal
Summary generated by AI from the video's captionsand checked against it; quotes are verbatim. Processed Oct 25, 2026.
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