Scott Melker · Oct 26, 2026 · 62 min
Bitcoin And Gold Are Both LOSING In 2026 - Why?
The panel discusses why Bitcoin and gold are the worst-performing major assets of 2026, tying it to a hawkish Fed, rising bond yields, widening credit spreads from AI data-center debt, and midterm election risk. Mike argues risk assets, metals and crypto have peaked and urges hiding in Treasuries. Dave and Peter think the Fed will intervene if credit stress spreads, see gold as fairly priced, and defend Bitcoin on adoption and fundamentals. Peter flags AI infrastructure debt strain and cheap Chinese compute as key risks.
Where they stand
Panel is cautious: credit spreads, stretched valuations, a hawkish Fed and election risk point to a possible drawdown, though Dave and Peter expect central banks to backstop credit.
Medium conviction · months
AI infrastructure is seen as overbuilt and debt-financed with a flush coming for weak players, though hyperscalers will keep buying compute and winners will do well.
Medium conviction · years
Mike is bearish and sees Bitcoin as having peaked, while Dave and Peter see it flopping in a range with long-term adoption upside and potential outperformance versus gold.
Medium conviction · months
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin (-7.3%) and gold (-7.5%) are the two worst-performing major assets of 2026, a first in any calendar year. 21:31
- AI infrastructure debt is under strain: credit spreads are widening in compute-buildout names and Peter would worry if credit ETFs start trading below NAV, which could trigger a disorderly sell-off. 4:58
- Mike argues crypto, metals, housing and bonds have peaked, stocks look historically stretched, and October is the time to hide in Treasuries, expecting the 5-year yield to fall. 28:45
- Dave expects the Fed to react if credit contagion emerges, sees liquidity tightening short term, and thinks gold is roughly fairly priced around 4,000. 11:31
- Peter fears cheap Chinese compute could undermine Western AI valuations and expects an economic slowdown, with rate cuts and wider credit spreads dragging equities. 7:40
- Midterm and post-election transition volatility is seen as underpriced; Peter would own volatility and rates hedges. 27:04
- Mike and Dave clash on Bitcoin: Mike says it has peaked and is a dud versus gold, Dave says fundamentals like hash rate have turned up and it has outperformed over six months. 49:12
- Peter says volatility-suppression strategies are far larger than before and could cause a rapid, ugly downturn if they unwind. 1:00:57
Calls and positions
- Mike expects the long bond yield to fall back below last year's close of 4.84% as gold and Bitcoin signal deflationary forces.
“the next trade is this yield on the long bond just drops back down below 4.84”
- Mike advises getting out of risk assets and hiding in Treasuries in October, expecting the 5-year yield to fall if stocks drop 10-20%.
“It's October. GMTFO just get out and hide in treasuries”
- Dave expects hyperscalers to keep buying compute, but a flush of weakly financed data-center companies leading to bankruptcies.
“I would expect to see the hyperscalers uh continue to buy compute because we just don't have enough compute.”
- Mike says his call that Bitcoin would lose a zero has been right so far and he sees no reason to rescind it.
“It's going to lose zero.”
- Peter warns that volatility-suppression strategies could unwind quickly and cause an ugly rapid downturn.
“if it breaks it gets really ugly very quickly”
Views expressed
- Bitcoin and gold are the two worst-performing major assets in 2026, down 7.3% and 7.5%, something not seen before in a calendar year.
“we've got uh Bitcoin down 7.3% and gold down 7.5% are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026”
- Peter says that if credit ETFs start trading cheap to NAV, it would signal a disorderly sell-off.
- Peter fears cheap Chinese compute will erode Western AI valuations.
“my biggest fear is cheap Chinese comput”
- Mike says Bitcoin is down for a second year in a row and its best trade is over.
“Bitcoin second year in a row down”
- Dave thinks gold is roughly fairly priced near 4,000 and could range between 3,500 and 4,500 with suppressed volatility.
“gold could see 3500 again. It could also see 4,500 again.”
- Peter would not touch gold because Judy Shelton's ideas on monetizing gold could signal the US no longer sees gold as a reserve asset.
“would not touch gold while her stuff is sitting out there”
- Peter sees the risk of an economic slide not priced in, expects rate cuts and wider credit spreads, and prefers owning Bitcoin over gold in that scenario.
“I do think the risk of an economic slide is here and markets aren't pricing that in.”
- Dave says Bitcoin has held above 78,000 and its fundamentals like hash rate have turned up over six months.
“Bitcoin's hash rate has turned up like significantly”
- Dave says the stock market could easily see a 20% drawdown after the election, depending on surprises.
“We could easily see a 20% draw down in in a in the stock market post this uh post the election.”
Companies, projects and topics mentioned
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