Theme · Markets
Treasuries and bonds: what the voices are saying
Debt securities issued by the US government, and the broader bond market they anchor.
Where the voices stand
BearishLatest views: 1 bullish, 0 neutral, 1 bearish. Counted only where Treasuries and bonds was the subject of the claim; 3 passing mentions not counted.
The read
Voices see fiscal strain and rising yields, but disagree on whether bonds are a refuge or a risk.
Several voices tie Treasuries to heavy US debt. Raoul Pal argued debt at this scale can only be refinanced, which needs ever more liquidity, and that debt and demographics pull bond yields lower over time.[1] Saifedean Ammous, on Scott Melker's show, called the rise in the 10-year yield a dangerous signal and said the US will keep devaluing its liabilities by increasing dollar supply.[2] Saeed Badreg noted that stablecoins now help America fund its deficits, with Tether a top-10 buyer of US Treasuries.[3] Raoul Pal said the bond market is record short after the rise in yields, so a reversal is the risk and there may be an opportunity in bonds.[4]
Where they disagree
On Scott Melker's panel, Mike advised hiding in Treasuries and expected the long bond yield to fall below 4.84%, while Ammous saw the rising 10-year yield as a warning of continued dollar devaluation.[5][2]
Sources (5)
- Raoul Pal: The Everything Code: Debt, Demographics and Liquidity (Ch. 1) (Oct 26, 2026) · watch
- Scott Melker: Bitcoin's Inflation Test Just Came In Hot - What's Next? (Oct 14, 2026) · watch
- Scott Melker: Bitcoin's Biggest Advantage Is The One Wall Street Can't Buy | Saeed Badreg (Oct 23, 2026) · watch
- Raoul Pal: The Secret to Long-Term Investing with Raoul Pal (Oct 15, 2026) · watch
- Scott Melker: Bitcoin And Gold Are Both LOSING In 2026 - Why? (Oct 26, 2026) · watch
Each voice's latest take
| Voice | Stance | What they said | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raoul Pal | Bullish | Debt and demographics pull bond yields lower over time. | 2 days ago |
| Scott Melker | Very bearish | Mike advises getting out of risk assets and hiding in Treasuries in October, expecting the 5-year yield to fall if stocks drop 10-20%. | 2 days ago |
Calls about Treasuries and bonds
- Mike expects the long bond yield to fall back below last year's close of 4.84% as gold and Bitcoin signal deflationary forces.
“the next trade is this yield on the long bond just drops back down below 4.84”
Every mention
- Debt and demographics pull bond yields lower over time.
“Debt and demographics pull yields lower over time.”
- Mike expects the long bond yield to fall back below last year's close of 4.84% as gold and Bitcoin signal deflationary forces.
“the next trade is this yield on the long bond just drops back down below 4.84”
- Mike advises getting out of risk assets and hiding in Treasuries in October, expecting the 5-year yield to fall if stocks drop 10-20%.
“It's October. GMTFO just get out and hide in treasuries”
- Stablecoins now play a non-trivial role in helping America borrow and fund its deficits, with Tether a top-10 buyer of US Treasuries.
“Tether's a top 10 buyer of US Treasuries and beats out like G20 countries in terms of purchasing US debt”
- Treasury manipulation of the bond market is likely to ramp up even though it has not worked and yields keep rising.
“it's very, very likely that the manipulation by the Treasury of the bond market is going to ramp up”
- The bond market is record short after the rise in yields, so the risk is a reversal and there may be an opportunity in bonds.
“So unless you've got an unknown element coming in, your risk is actually a reversal. So maybe there's an opportunity in bonds.”
- The US government will keep devaluing its liabilities by increasing dollar supply, and the 10-year yield rise is a dangerous signal.
“The US government just continues to devalue its liabilities by increasing the supply of the dollars.”
Frequently asked questions
Are investors bullish or bearish on Treasuries and bonds?
On balance the voices Read on Risk follows are bearish on Treasuries and bonds: of their latest views, 1 bullish, 0 neutral and 1 bearish (as of Oct 29, 2026).
What does Raoul Pal think about Treasuries and bonds?
Debt and demographics pull bond yields lower over time. (Bullish, Oct 26, 2026.)
What does Scott Melker think about Treasuries and bonds?
Mike advises getting out of risk assets and hiding in Treasuries in October, expecting the 5-year yield to fall if stocks drop 10-20%. (Very bearish, Oct 26, 2026.)
What is Treasuries and bonds?
Debt securities issued by the US government, and the broader bond market they anchor.
Often discussed alongside
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