Weekly edition · 2026-W42
Markets, AI and crypto: the week of Oct 12–18, 2026
Voices lean optimistic on AI and risk assets, treating the recent selloff as a financing and positioning problem, not collapsing demand.
Jordi Visser argued the selloff reflects hedge-fund leverage unwinding rather than a bursting AI bubble, and expects a possible year-end snapback if no bubble exists.[1] On All-In, David Sacks said AI compute supply is constrained rather than excessive, and the panel said demand is still growing rapidly with older GPUs renting at premium prices.[2] Martin Shkreli, on All-In, said he is bullish on the market and considered the recent sell-off a head fake, while expecting large long-term AI opportunities.[3] Peter Diamandis's panels were optimistic that AI and robotics will advance rapidly, with Emad predicting robot-intelligence costs could effectively reach zero within a year.[4][5] On crypto, Jordi Visser said he has moved most of his portfolio into crypto, though he expects Bitcoin to stay weak until hedge-fund stress eases.[1]
Where they disagree
Jordi Visser argued crypto has a strong long-term role, while Peter Diamandis's panel guest Alex warned AI-driven mathematical advances could make cryptography, including post-quantum schemes, vulnerable to being broken.[1][5]
Sources (5)
- Jordi Visser: The AI Bubble Didn’t Pop. Hedge Fund Leverage Did. (Oct 18, 2026) · watch
- All-In Podcast: CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer (Oct 17, 2026) · watch
- All-In Podcast: Martin Shkreli: Big Pharma's Blind Spot, Betting Against Quantum & What Prison Taught Him (Oct 12, 2026) · watch
- Peter Diamandis: Flying Tesla Car, Robot Brains Halving in Cost Every 3 Weeks, and Why Incentives Decide AI Alignment (Oct 17, 2026) · watch
- Peter Diamandis: AI Solves 722 Math Problems at Once, $1.8B Race to Build Virtual Cell, Elon Sees Quadrillion SpaceX (Oct 15, 2026) · watch
Markets
Of the 3 voices with a recent view, 1 bullish, 2 neutral.
Voices lean cautiously risk-on, treating the recent selloff as a positioning shakeout while flagging financing risks for AI-linked assets.
Jordi Visser argued the selloff is mainly a hedge-fund leverage unwind rather than a bubble collapse, noting the S&P 500 was only 2.7% below its all-time high at the prior Friday close.[1] Visser expects crowded positions to keep falling into hyperscaler earnings, followed by a year-end snapback if there is no AI bubble.[1] On All-In, Martin Shkreli was bullish near term and dismissed the recent sell-off as a head fake.[2] Peter Diamandis's panel stayed optimistic on AI and robotics, with Dave agreeing that SpaceX could become vastly more valuable as AI accelerates economic activity.[3] Diamandis also predicted Tesla and SpaceX will announce a merger before year-end.[4]
Where they disagree
All-In's Chamath Palihapitiya warned that CoreWeave's credit-default-swap pricing implied roughly a 55% default chance and that a 10-year yield near 5.5%–6% would hurt AI infrastructure, contrasting with Shkreli's and Diamandis's bullishness.[5][2][3]
Sources (5)
- Jordi Visser: The AI Bubble Didn’t Pop. Hedge Fund Leverage Did. (Oct 18, 2026) · watch
- All-In Podcast: Martin Shkreli: Big Pharma's Blind Spot, Betting Against Quantum & What Prison Taught Him (Oct 12, 2026) · watch
- Peter Diamandis: AI Solves 722 Math Problems at Once, $1.8B Race to Build Virtual Cell, Elon Sees Quadrillion SpaceX (Oct 15, 2026) · watch
- Peter Diamandis: Flying Tesla Car, Robot Brains Halving in Cost Every 3 Weeks, and Why Incentives Decide AI Alignment (Oct 17, 2026) · watch
- All-In Podcast: CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer (Oct 17, 2026) · watch
Each voice this week
| Voice | Stance | Their view | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Diamandis | Bullish medium conviction · years | The panel is optimistic that AI and space-related activity could create enormous economic value, while recognizing uncertainty about business models, costs and how to measure that value. | Oct 17, 2026 |
| All-In Podcast | Neutral medium conviction · months | The panel was broadly constructive on AI-linked risk assets but saw significant financing and valuation risks, especially if long-term rates rise or compute-project paybacks lengthen. | Oct 17, 2026 |
| Jordi Visser | Neutral high conviction · months | The current selloff is primarily a leveraged hedge-fund positioning unwind rather than a broad equity bubble, though forced selling may persist before a possible rebound. | Oct 18, 2026 |
AI
Of the 3 voices with a recent view, 3 bullish.
Voices see AI demand and capability still accelerating, treating recent market stress as a financing and leverage issue rather than a bust.
Jordi Visser argued the AI selloff reflects hedge fund leverage and crowded trades, not a collapse in demand, and said AI agent swarms will push GPU and compute demand higher.[1] On All-In, David Sacks said compute demand is still growing rapidly, older GPUs still rent at premium prices, and supply is constrained because powered data centers are hard to build.[2] Chamath Palihapitiya argued access to power and data-center capacity will become a key competitive advantage, while Ben Horowitz said he expects Anthropic's IPO to be strong despite uncertainty over growth and valuation.[2] Peter Diamandis's panels pointed to fast capability gains, with Emad citing robot-subtask costs falling from $2.36 in July to $0.38 in September and Alex predicting plausible in-silico drug interventions for the top 5,000 diseases within two to three years.[3][4] Martin Shkreli, on All-In, said demand for intelligence and work has no practical limit and that he expects Meta to be a leading AI winner, while calling catastrophe warnings premature.[5]
Where they disagree
On All-In, David Sacks warned that Anthropic's approach to model constitutions could increase alignment risks and Ben Horowitz called its campaign against open-source models unnecessary, while Martin Shkreli said AI will not produce a relevant drug within 10 years, against Alex's two-to-three-year drug-intervention forecast on Peter Diamandis's show.[2][5][4]
Sources (5)
- Jordi Visser: The AI Bubble Didn’t Pop. Hedge Fund Leverage Did. (Oct 18, 2026) · watch
- All-In Podcast: CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer (Oct 17, 2026) · watch
- Peter Diamandis: Flying Tesla Car, Robot Brains Halving in Cost Every 3 Weeks, and Why Incentives Decide AI Alignment (Oct 17, 2026) · watch
- Peter Diamandis: AI Solves 722 Math Problems at Once, $1.8B Race to Build Virtual Cell, Elon Sees Quadrillion SpaceX (Oct 15, 2026) · watch
- All-In Podcast: Martin Shkreli: Big Pharma's Blind Spot, Betting Against Quantum & What Prison Taught Him (Oct 12, 2026) · watch
Each voice this week
| Voice | Stance | Their view | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-In Podcast | Very bullish high conviction · years | The speakers expect AI adoption, compute demand, and productivity gains to continue growing, while emphasizing infrastructure constraints and financing as major risks. | Oct 17, 2026 |
| Jordi Visser | Very bullish high conviction · years | AI adoption and compute demand are still accelerating, and current market stress does not amount to an AI bubble bursting. | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Peter Diamandis | Very bullish high conviction · years | The panel expects AI capabilities to keep advancing and to transform research, medicine, engineering and personal computing, though it raises ethical and commercial concerns. | Oct 17, 2026 |
Crypto
Of the 3 voices with a recent view, 1 bullish, 2 neutral.
Voices see crypto's long-term role as intact, but near-term conviction is tempered by market stress and security questions.
Jordi Visser was the most bullish, saying he has shifted most of his portfolio into crypto and that tokenization will reshape hedge-fund margin and covariance.[1] Even so, Visser said Bitcoin is holding up during the selloff but is unlikely to rise sustainably until hedge-fund conditions stabilize, and could meander back toward 75.[1] On Peter Diamandis's show, the panel treated crypto mainly as a security question, with Salim arguing that cryptography can adapt and that distributed ledgers and decentralized authentication remain strengths.[2] On All-In, Martin Shkreli did not give a crypto price outlook, but noted quantum computers could perform integer factorization and elliptic-curve discrete-log calculations in polynomial time.[3]
Where they disagree
Alex on Peter Diamandis's show argued AI advances in mathematics could leave cryptography, even post-quantum, vulnerable, while Salim said proof-of-work cryptography can change and blockchain's core strengths endure.[2]
Sources (3)
- Jordi Visser: The AI Bubble Didn’t Pop. Hedge Fund Leverage Did. (Oct 18, 2026) · watch
- Peter Diamandis: AI Solves 722 Math Problems at Once, $1.8B Race to Build Virtual Cell, Elon Sees Quadrillion SpaceX (Oct 15, 2026) · watch
- All-In Podcast: Martin Shkreli: Big Pharma's Blind Spot, Betting Against Quantum & What Prison Taught Him (Oct 12, 2026) · watch
Each voice this week
| Voice | Stance | Their view | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordi Visser | Very bullish high conviction · years | Crypto and tokenization have a strong long-term role in the changing market structure, although Bitcoin may remain weak until hedge-fund stress subsides. | Oct 18, 2026 |
| All-In Podcast | Neutral low conviction · years | Crypto prices and adoption are not discussed as an investment outlook, although Shkreli notes quantum computing could eventually threaten cryptographic problems. | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Peter Diamandis | Neutral medium conviction · years | The panel sees AI-enabled mathematical advances as a serious potential threat to cryptographic security, but argues that decentralized ledgers and authentication may remain useful and cryptographic systems can adapt. | Oct 15, 2026 |
Calls made this week
- Visser expects crowded hedge-fund positions to keep falling into hyperscaler earnings and possibly the midterm elections, followed by a year-end snapback if there is no AI bubble.
“the pain trade for this is to continue into the hyperscaler earnings and maybe all the way into the midterms”
- Visser says Nvidia's guidance indicated 70% revenue growth for the next year, which he regards as evidence that AI business demand remains strong.
“Nvidia just guided for 70% revenue growth.”
- Visser says Bitcoin is holding up during the selloff but is unlikely to rise until hedge-fund conditions stabilize.
“I don't think we're going to see a move higher in Bitcoin until we see some stabilization in the hedge fund scenario.”
- Visser says Bitcoin could meander back toward 75 before conditions improve.
“it would not surprise me if it kept meandering back down towards the 75 area”
- Emad predicts that if robot-intelligence costs keep halving every three weeks, they will effectively reach zero within a year, leaving hardware cost as the main constraint.
“effectively there is no cost for robotic intellect or robotic locomotion. It comes down to the hardware cost.”
- Peter reports Elon Musk’s prediction that robots will perform perfect surgery within three years.
“robots are doing perfect surgery within 3 years.”
- Emad predicts that major theoretical physics questions, including quantum gravity or unified field theory, could be solved in no more than half a year.
“I don't think it'll be more than half a year.”
- Salim predicts that as AI and robots take on more routine tasks, people will be able to spend more time on creativity and human connection.
“as robots and AI take on more and more of the doing, humans can much more time spend much more time being.”
- Peter says Tesla shares rose 5% after the Roadster announcement and predicts Tesla and SpaceX will announce a merger before year-end.
“my prediction is they're going to announce the merger before the end of the year.”
- Peter says the announced Tesla Roadster will begin production in 2028, though no price was given.
“production starts in 2028 per Elon.”
- The panel said a rising 10-year Treasury yield near 5.5%–6% would damage businesses that depend on financing spreads, including AI infrastructure companies.
“Any business model that thrives on a financing spread gets cornhold”
- Ben Horowitz said Anthropic’s IPO is likely to be strong despite uncertainty about its growth rate and valuation.
“I think it is set up to have a a strong IPO.”
- Alex predicts that AI will produce plausible in-silico drug interventions for the top 5,000 diseases within two to three years.
- Alex says AI suffering may be real and expects that the moral implications of training models will become clearer within a decade.
“My bet is there is AI suffering and it will matter”
- Dave predicts that personal robots will become affordable and widely accessible, much like phones.
“I believe it's going to become something that most everybody can get access to.”
- Shkreli expects today’s Nvidia accelerators to be obsolete in about 20 years as better computing methods emerge.
“in 20 years these H100s are in the scrap heap”
- Shkreli says AI could create entire portfolios of businesses within companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
“you're going to have a whole S&P 500 within Open AI or Anthropic”
- He says AI will not produce a drug relevant to the field within the next 10 years.
“I don't think there'll be a single AI-relevant drug in the next 10 years.”
In their words
“Hedge fund leverage has popped.”
“the cost for a frontier model to complete a robot subtask fell from $2.36 in July to $0.38 in September, 84% drop.”
“about a 55% chance of a default”
“We are 2.7% off the all-time highs in the S&P 500”
“effectively there is no cost for robotic intellect or robotic locomotion. It comes down to the hardware cost.”
“these guys are getting very, very, very close to not necessarily being able to cover all the obligations”
“the pain trade for this is to continue into the hyperscaler earnings and maybe all the way into the midterms”
“I think that's what's going to win here because humans are generalized.”
Episodes in this edition
- The AI Bubble Didn’t Pop. Hedge Fund Leverage Did.
- Flying Tesla Car, Robot Brains Halving in Cost Every 3 Weeks, and Why Incentives Decide AI Alignment
- CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer
- AI Solves 722 Math Problems at Once, $1.8B Race to Build Virtual Cell, Elon Sees Quadrillion SpaceX
- Martin Shkreli: Big Pharma's Blind Spot, Betting Against Quantum & What Prison Taught Him
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